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Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 9/5/2008

November soybeans were 37 1/4 cents lower overnight. Malaysian palm oil futures were down more than 3%. The dollar made new highs for the move overnight and crude oil was lower.

Soybeans moved lower again yesterday with December soy oil breaking and closing below its August lows in the process. Overnight, the entire complex moved sharply lower as traders voiced concern over the potential for a worldwide economic slowdown. It is thought that this could result in reduced feed demand in the US and Asia as well as continued erosion in fuel prices. A stronger dollar and weaker crude oil also contributed to the losses. Weakness in Chinese markets today encompassed both stocks and the soybean complex as traders there report that supplies of soybeans and oil are still ample amid expectations of a bumper crop for Chinese soybeans. The USDA will issue its weekly Export Sales Report prior to the opening today. Export demand is said to be soft for US soybeans with elevators at the Gulf expected to resume loadings today after interruptions this week caused by Hurricane Gustav. Trade began today in a dollar-denominated palm oil contract in Malaysia. Basis levels for meal have jumped sharply this week on scarce supplies, particularly in Minnesota, but also in Iowa and elsewhere in the Midwest. The tight ending soybean stocks from last year are being made worse by the lateness of this year's soybean crop, and this has caused spot shortages in meal, but the situation should resolve itself by October as the harvest finally gets in full swing. Deliveries against the September contracts today were 3 contracts in soybeans, 1,562 contracts in oil and zero in meal.

Rain was heavier than expected across much of the central corn and soybean belts over the past 48 to 72 hours. It is expected to push more fully into Indiana and on into western Ohio today. This will mean more widespread coverage than was expected earlier this week. Cool temperatures are the next big story with below normal temperatures expected to push into the NW and northern Midwest by this weekend, possibly extending across all major growing areas by next Tuesday. Still no forecast of a major frost. There are no new tenders to report.




 
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