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Soybean Complex Market Recap for 8/8/2008

November Soybeans finished down 58 1/2 at 1180 1/2, 70 off the high and 7 up from the low. August Soybeans closed down 44 at 1199. This was 12 3/4 up from the low and 50 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 19.4 at 313.3. This was 0.3 up from the low and 21.7 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 1.7 at 51.5, 2.01 off the high and 0.56 up from the low.

Soybeans opened sharply lower and sold off further through mid session. Prices firmed somewhat during late morning and early afternoon, but remained sharply lower. Meal and oil were also sharply lower throughout the day. Traders said that a variety of negative price factors were impacting the soybean market today. Chief among them was the sharply higher dollar which has caused a sell off in a broad spectrum of commodity markets today. The rally in the dollar was so steep today that exporters are concerned that it could adversely affect export demand. Traders in China say that the steep drop in markets there may be due in part to ideas that weak domestic crush margins and a recent surge in Chinese import buying has left the domestic Chinese market overbought, and that that this may result in a sharp drop in imports of soybeans starting in September. Commercial selling in soybeans today was thought to be tied to ideas of reduced China imports. Also adding to today's negative sentiment was a report from the US agricultural attache in Argentina that projected a 5% rise in soybean acreage there to 17.7 million hectares. This is due to an expected drop in acreage for corn and wheat. This is expected to result in production of 49.5 million tonnes compared to the previous official US projection of 48.0 million tonnes. Projected exports were raised by 200,000 tonnes. Weather was said to be another negative factor today with areas in the Delta and SE United States expecting moderate temperatures in coming days along with ongoing, beneficial rains across the US Delta through the weekend and again during the middle of next week. Also, the previously absent monsoon rains in India are apparently returning to normal which is considered very beneficial to developing oilseed crops there. Trade estimates for soybean yield on Tuesday's USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports are up only slightly from the USDA's July estimate despite almost ideal growing weather since then. Some traders are worried that the eventual yield may end up being higher. Basis levels at the Gulf were mostly steady today on light demand.




 
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