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Mid-Session Soy Complex Market Report for 7/25/2008

November soybeans opened 8 cents lower on the day at 1365 and established an early range of 1358 to 1373. The lower open was followed by choppy trade near the opening level on light to moderate volume according to floor traders. Meal and oil were also lower on the open and into early mid session. Long term weather models are conflicting this morning with the US model showing a hot weather system with well above normal temperatures locking in over virtually the entire soybean belt during the first week of August with hot weather in the western soybean belt prior to that. However, the European model shows seasonal to somewhat cooler weather across northern growing areas through the first week of August. There is better consensus in forecasts for the Delta where hot and dry weather is expected over both the long and short term. The government of Argentina said that it will collect export taxes retroactively from grain exporters and this has brought lower prices to the market at Rosario. Cash market sources report that farmers are still holding onto supplies and that basis levels are generally expected to be firm today in the interior as traders try to attract fresh supplies. Basis levels at the Gulf are steady with little activity due to the closure of the Mississippi near the Gulf of Mexico after yesterday's oil spill.




 
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